One of the benefits of a five-decade tenure in an industry is hindsight. There was a real estate bubble! Yes, it’s always crystal clear!
Unfortunately, looking into the future is a bit murkier. Every January, we are festooned with economic forecasts from scholars. Doubt what I say? Simply tune in for the Chapman, Cal State Fullerton, UCLA, Charles Schwab reviews and others. All will give their opinion on what the blossoming year will have in store for our economy. Predicted will be growth in commerce, changes in consumer confidence, outlook for interest rates, stock market trends, inflationary pressures and the impact of all of the above on real estate pricing.
But it’s August, and you may be thinking, why look forward to January? Well, when you see Christmas decorations next month, you’ll understand. These next four months will fly by!
I’ve consumed several of these Nostradamus events over the years. One of the most meaningful was in February of 2020. Featured was a panel of experts assembled by Northwest Mutual. One gentleman, in particular, gave a brilliant narrative on the forces that cause a downturn. From my notes: “Mentioned during the preamble was a check of five factors that cause bear markets — inflation, recessions, commodity shortages, crazy market valuations and uncertainty.”